Highlights – 1991/92 world wheat, grain, and rice trade forecasts

Highlights – 1991/92 world wheat, grain, and rice trade forecasts – U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service report

Following are highlights of this month’s updated forecasts of world supply, use, and trade for wheat, coarse grains, and rice.

FORECASTS FOR 1991/92

Imports

The coarse grain import forecast for the republics of the former Soviet Union was raised by 1 million metric tons to reflect the increased purchases of barley under credit from the EC and other West European countries.

The forecast for U.S. imports of corn was increased by 400,000 tons to 500,000 tons. Most of the imports will be from Canada reflecting depressed Canadian corn prices due to record production and large carryover stocks.

The forecast for India’s wheat imports was increased 200,000 tons reflecting a recent decision by the Government to buy wheat in late 1991/92 and early 1992/93.

The forecast for Bangladesh’s wheat imports was increased 200,000 tons reflecting reports that the Government will take advantage of a relatively favorable foreign exchange situation to augment wheat stocks it considers unacceptably low.

The forecast for Morocco’s wheat imports was increased 300,000 tons reflecting strong purchases and commitments made recently in anticipation of a reduced harvest for the forthcoming crop.

The forecast of Nigeria’s wheat imports was increased by 200,000 tons due to reported increased unofficial imports.

South Africa, whose October/September year exports have been reduced due to a 2-million-ton decline in prospects for the forthcoming crop, is forecast to import 300,000 tons of corn. For the 1991/92 May/April local marketing year imports were raised to 1 million tons.

Forecast rice imports for the republics of the former Soviet Union were raised by 300,000 tons reflecting, in part, the recent reported purchase of 500,000 tons from Thailand under credit guarantees.

Exports

The forecast for U.S. wheat exports was increased 700,000 tons reflecting slightly larger world import needs.

Corn exports from the United States were forecast 1 million tons lower due to greater competition with corn from China and reduced imports forecast for Mexico.

China’s corn exports were forecast 500,000 tons higher in part due to a continued shift in Asian markets to lower priced corn from China.

The forecast for barley exports from the EC was increased 500,000 tons due to larger prospective sales to the Republics of the former Soviet Union (including Baltics).

Canada’s corn exports were forecast up 400,000 tons to near record levels, largely due to sharply higher sales to the U.S. market.

Exports of rice from Vietnam are forecast 400,000 tons higher in anticipation that new minimum prices for export announced by the Government will not pose as significant a restraint on exports as first thought.

Thailand’s rice exports were forecast 200,000 tons lower as competition from Vietnam and other Asian suppliers stiffens.

The forecast for Burma’s rice exports was lowered by 300,000 tons prompted by reports that Burmese officials plan to export only about 200,000 tons of rice in calendar year (CY) 1992 to ensure domestic supplies.

The Philippines are now forecast to export 150,000 tons of rice with no imports in calendar year CY 1992. Rice availabilities in 1992 will reportedly be sufficient to pay back outstanding 1985 and 1989 rice loans from Indonesia.

COPYRIGHT 1992 U.S. Department of Agriculture

COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group