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World Cotton Situation

World situation – projected 1991-92 world cotton production, price statistics

World situation – projected 1991-92 world cotton production, price statistics – U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service report

World cotton production for 1991/92 is projected at a record 91 million bales, 5 percent more than the current season and moderately above the previous record of 89 million bales harvested in 1984/85. U.S. production is projected at 16 million bales, 3 percent above this year and the largest crop since 1953/54 when output hit 16.4 million bales. Total foreign production is projected at 75 million bales, a gain of nearly 5 percent over 1990/91 and second only to the 1984/85 record of 76 million bales. For the current 1990/91 year world cotton production is estimated at 86.8 million bales, down 200,000 bales from last month’s projection. Foreign production is estimated at 71.3 million bales. U.S. production is estimated at 15.5 million bales, unchanged from last month estimate. In Australia, production is estimated at a record 1.75 million bales, up 150,000 bales from last month’s projection. Yields were forecast higher after a nearly ideal harvest period. Production in India is revised to 9.35 million bales, down 250,000 bales from last month’s projection. Yields were forecast lower due to weather problems during the year, including drought in Gujarat and the late season heavy rainfall in north and central India. World cotton consumption for marketing year 1991/92 (August-July) is projected at 88 million bales, up 2 percent from the current year. On the foreign side, consumption is estimated up 3 percent to 79.5 million bales. With respect to the present 1990/91 season, world consumption is estimated at 85.9 million bales down slightly from April’s estimate. The major change in the current season contributing to the decrease came from the Soviet Union where internal restructuring resulted in a 300,000-bale downward revision in the consumption estimate. The largest upward adjustment of 250,000 bales was made in the consumption estimate for India due in part to cotton price increases prompting Indian spinners to buy in anticipation of future cotton prices hikes. U.S. cotton exports for February 1991 were 1.0 million bales, 7 percent higher than the 944,000 bales reported in January 1991 and up 26 percent from February 1990, according to U.S. Census data. The leading markets were China, Japan, and South Korea. Cumulative exports for August 1990 through February 1991 were 4.8 million bales, 9.7 percent higher than the same period last year. World cotton exports for MY 1991/92 are projected at 23.5 million bales down slightly from the current season. Total foreign exports are forecast at 16.5 million bales, up 2 percent from this season. World trade in the current 1990/91 marketing season is estimated 24.1 million bales, up slightly from the previous month’s report. The major upward adjustment was an increase for projected exports of 100,000 bales each in Pakistan and Australia. This was matched by a 100,000-bale decrease in estimated exports for India. The downward adjustment in India came as a result of a combined decrease in production and a need to maintain supplies for domestic mill consumption. World ending stocks for MY 1991/92 are projected at 29 million bales, up 11 percent from this season’s revised level of 26.2 million bales. Foreign ending stocks also are forecast up 9 percent to 26 million bales. The 737,000 bale adjustment this month for the 1990/91 marketing season is due primarily to a historical adjustment to Pakistan’s stock numbers beginning in MY 1980/81 and carried forward to the current year. Another significant stock increase was noted for the Soviet Union, where stocks were raised 300,000 bales because of an equivalent reduction in its consumption estimate for MY 1990/91. Conversely, ending stocks were reduced 380,000 bales in India as a result of reductions in production and exports in MY 1990/91. World cotton prices declined slightly in April but remained relatively strong due to tight worldwide supplies. The “A” index of Northern European cotton quotations in April averaged 82.99 cents per pound, 101 points lower than the March average. Tight U.S. supplies again pushed the Memphis Territory quote well above the “A” index, at 97.09 cents per pound. Also, for the first time since the beginning of the 1985 Farm Bill, California/Arizona cotton was not quoted by the Liverpool market, further illustrating the tight exportable supply situation in the United States. Heavy spring rains in the Delta and Far Western United States propelled the October and December delivery contracts upward on the New York Cotton Exchange. The July contract closed the month of April at 88.24 cents per pound, up 413 points. The October contract climbed to 76.98 cents, up 343 points during April, while December rose to 72.18 cents, up 270 points. The rains have delayed plantings and threaten to lower yields, although the overall level of U.S. production is still expected to exceed this year’s level. [Tabular Data 2 Omitted]

COPYRIGHT 1991 U.S. Department of Agriculture

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