Summary – 1991 rice production, exports, prices – U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Economic Research Service report
U.S. 1991 rice production is forecast up 2 percent from a year earlier to 157.7 million cwt, based on USDA’s Crop Production Report released October 10. This is due to projected small increases in harvested acreage and yields. Output of long grain rice is forecast up 4 percent, while combined medium and short grain output is expected to fall 3 percent.
Yields for 1991 are currently forecast at 5,571 pounds per acre, up 1 percent from 1990 but well below the record 5,749 reached two years earlier. Harvested acreage is forecast at 2.83 million acres, 18,000 acres more than in 1990.
Overall, U.S. rice supplies in 1991/92 are forecast to increase less than 1 percent to 187.3 million cwt. Carryin stocks were down from a year earlier. However, imports are expected to be up. With a projected 3 percent increase in domestic use, but slightly lower exports, total use will about equal production plus imports. Thus carryout stocks are projected at 24.5 million cwt, slightly below a year earlier. This would be the fourth consecutive year with the stocks-to-use ratio below 17 percent.
Domestic use continues to grow as per capita use increases. Food use for 1991/92 is forecast up 5 percent, based on trend increases. Brewers’ use, currently around 18 percent of total-domestic use, is projected up slightly.
Historically, exports have accounted for about 50 percent of total U.S. rice use. However, in the last few years, domestic use has surged ahead of exports. Relatively tight supplies, strong growth in the domestic market, and higher domestic prices have limited U.S. rice available for export and have pressured prices above those of foreign rice exporters.
U.S. exports are projected at 70 million cwt in 1991/92, down slightly from 1990/91 and substantially below the near record 85.9 million cwt in 1988/89. Continued tight U.S. supplies are likely to keep U.S. prices well above those of Asian exporters. World trade is projected to expand slightly over the next year, creating a very competitive environment for U.S. exports.
U.S. rough rice prices are currently projected to range between $6.75 and $7.75 per cwt in 1991/92, compared with an estimated range of $6.60 to $6.80 for 1990/91. Tighter U.S. supplies and strong domestic demand are currently bolstering U.S. prices.
World rice production in 1991/92 is forecast at 344 million tons (milled), 2.4 percent below 1990/91. Global consumption is projected down marginally, the first decline since 1987/88, but will still exceed output. Thus world ending stocks are projected down 4 percent. Trade is projected to expand 3 percent to 12.9 million tons.
COPYRIGHT 1991 U.S. Department of Agriculture
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