Fruit and Tree Nuts: Per capita consumption revisions reflect 1990 census population estimates – consumption of fruit, fruit products, and tree nuts according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service report

Per capita consumption revisions reflect 1990 census population estimates – consumption of fruit, fruit products, and tree nuts according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service report – U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service report

U.S. Population Numbers Revised Downward

The total U.S. population, including armed forces overseas, is used to calculate per capita consumption of fruit, fruit products, and tree nuts. Based on the 1990 Census, population numbers for the last half of the 1980’s were revised downward about one-half of 1 percent. The January 1, 1990, population was revised from 250.12 million to 248.68 million, about 0.6 percent lower. The revised population numbers used in this report are shown in table 3a. All per capita calculations in this report are based on either the January 1 or the July 1 population estimates, depending on whether consumption is measured for a calendar or crop year. The population nearest the midpoint of the consumption period is selected to calculate the per capita number. All fresh fruit consumption figures are for calendar years, except apples, grapes, and pears, which are on a crop-year basis. Therefore, the July 1 population figure is used for most fresh fruits, while the January 1 population figure is used for fresh apples, grapes, and pears. Per capita consumption for all dry fruits and tree nuts are on a crop-year basis and reflect the January 1 population figure. Other per capita consumption calculations, including most canned and frozen fruit, frozen juices, and canned and chilled juices, are on a calendar-year basis and reflect the July 1 population figure.

New Per Capita Consumption Estimates for Canned Fruits

Beginning in 1990, pack and stock data for a variety of canned fruits were no longer available from several key industry participants and, therefore, the per capita consumption figures for canned fruits were not updated for 1989. This year USDA’s Economic Research Service developed an alternative procedure for estimating canned fruit consumption using data on utilization for canning as reported by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Typically domestic consumption of a commodity, for the designated time period (calendar or crop year), is estimated by taking domestic production, adding beginning stocks and imports, and then subtracting ending stocks and exports. Until discontinued in 1990, industry pack and stock data for canned fruit (apples, apricots, sweet and tart cherries, fruit cocktail, peaches, plums and prunes, and olives) were used as the measures of domestic canned production and stocks. With the new procedure, the NASS estimates of the amount of selected fruits used for canning is used as the measure of canned fruit production or pack. The fresh weight of fruits used for canning is converted into its product-weight-equivalent using standard conversions. There still are no measures of canned fruit stocks, therefore, stock adjustments are excluded from the per capita calculations. Imports and exports, as in the past, are obtained directly from U.S. Department of Commerce trade data. Because the new procedure does not reflect beginning or ending stocks, the consumption estimates can be biased for any given year, but not necessarily baised for the general trend of consumption. For example, when stocks increase from the beginning to the end of the period, consumption estimates would be overstated, as the stock buildup would be erroneously included in the consumption estimate. Similarly, in years when stocks decreased, consumption would be understated, as the drawdown on stocks would be erroneously excluded from the consumption estimate. However, over time, stocks tend to fluctuate around a relatively constant desired level. This same estimating procedure was used last year to reestablish per capita consumption measures for apple products (see table 115) and for fresh and processed pineapple (see table 116). In transferring from industry to NASS utilization data, the mix of canned fruit products for which per capita consumption numbers are calculated changed somewhat, reflecting the availability of data. Canned utilization data are estimated by NASS for apples, apricots, cherries, peaches, plums and prunes, olives, and pears. For pears, only total processed utilization is reported by NASS and canned pears are not broken out as a separate processed item. In our procedure for estimating canned pears, the amount of pears utilized for drying is subtracted from total processed utilization and the remainder is assumed to be canned. Fruit cocktail had previously been estimated as a separate canned fruit item. However, under the new procedure, all fruits used in canned fruit cocktail will be included with the processed utilization for each canned fruit. Results indicate that the old and new procedures provide similar estimates of per capita consumption for apricots, peaches, and prunes and plums. For cherries and pears, the new estimates are more than twice the old estimates. The discrepancies could be due to a number of factors, including previous underreporting of the pack by the industry. Also, in the case of pears, the NASS processed-pear utilization data include pears canned in fruit cocktail but these were not included with industry pack used in the previous procedure. For canned apples and olives, the new estimates are identical to the old as NASS utilization estimates were used under both the old and new procedures.

Table 3a–Total U.S. population (1/)

January 1 July 1

— Million —

1970 203.849 205.052

1971 206.466 207.661

1972 208.917 209.896

1973 210.985 211.909

1974 212.932 213.854

1975 214.931 215.973

1976 217.095 218.035

1977 219.179 220.239

1978 221.477 222.585

1979 223.865 225.055

1980 226.451 227.719

1981 228.917 229.945

1982 231.134 232.171

1983 233.311 234.296

1984 235.381 236.343

1985 237.472 238.466

1986 239.642 240.658

1987 241.796 242.820

1988 244.009 245.051

1989 246.263 247.350

1990 248.684 249.975

1991 251.409 N.A.

(1/)Including armed forces overseas. N.A. = Not available. Source: Department of Labor. [Figure 3 Omitted] [Tables 1 to 10 Omitted]

COPYRIGHT 1991 For more information, contact US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Phone: 1-800-999-6779 (8:30-5:00 ET).

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