Feed: Barley supply and use projected to drop in 1991/92

Barley supply and use projected to drop in 1991/92 – U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service report

Lower forecast carryin stocks more than offset a small gain in projected production to reduce supply 5 percent for 1991/92. Use is projected to decline about the same as supply, leaving ending stocks about unchanged.

Barley Planting Intentions Increase for 1991

USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report indicated a barley planted area of 8.71 million acres for 1991 up about 6 percent from the actual 8.21 million acres planted last year. In contrast to the 1990 crop, the biggest changes in intended planted area are among the largest barley producers. Farmers in North Dakota alone intend to plant about one-third of the nation’s total and 200,000 more than in 1990, registering the largest absolute year-to-year gain of any of the States. Preliminary signup for the 1991 barley program showed over 8.6 million acres enrolled out of an effective base of 11.5 million, bringing participation to almost 75 percent. Participation was 69 percent in 1990 and 67 percent in 1989. The barley ARP requirement for the 1991 crop is set at 7.5 percent. The sign up report showed 0.6 million designated as idled under the Acreage Reduction Provisions and 1.4 million acres either idled or planted to other minor oilseed crops under the 0/92 provisions.

1991/92 Barley Crop Projected Up Slightly

The 1991 barley crop is projected at 425 million bushels, up only slightly from the 1990 crop. However, barley supplies are forecast down 5 percent at only 562 million bushels as a result of lower beginning stocks. Carryin stocks for 1991/92 are forecast at 127 million bushels, down 34 million from a year earlier. With tighter supplies, feed and residual use is projected to be down about 25 million bushels, about 12 percent, at 175 million bushels. FSI use is expected to be largely unchanged also at 175 million bushels. Once again, exports are projected to remain steady at 85 million bushels. As a result, total use is projected at 435 million bushels, down 28 million from forecast 1990/91. Use is expected to approximate production plus imports, leaving stocks unchanged at the end of 1991/92. The average farm price for the 1991/92 crop is projected at $1.80 to $2.20 per bushel.

Use Data On Track For 1990/91

Data for the first three quarters of the June-May marketing year for barley indicate feed and residual use of about 175 million bushels. This implies a fourth quarter use of 25 million during March-May 1991, the smallest quarterly use during the year, but about the same as in the last quarter of 1989/90. FSI use for 1990/91 is forecast at 178 million bushels, or about the same as in 1989/90. Through the first three quarters of the crop year FSI was estimated at 125 million bushels, or about equal to a year earlier. Exports during the first ten months of the crop year totaled 77.0 million bushels, up 10 million from the same period last year. However, inspections for export from April through mid May this year were less than 200,000 bushels compared with 12.5 million last year, and outstanding export sales in mid May were 800,000 bushels this year compared with 6.7 million a year earlier. Saudi Arabia continues to be our largest barley purchaser by far. Other large purchasers include Jordan, Algeria, Israel, and Mexico. As of early April 1991, exports and outstanding sales totaled 79 million bushels, compared to 87.0 million at the same time in 1989/90. Saudi Arabia continues to be our largest barley purchaser by far. Other large purchasers include Jordan, Algeria, Israel, and Mexico. Ending stocks for the 1990/91 crop year are forecast at 127 million bushels, down from 161 million a year earlier. The last time ending stocks were this low was 1976/77. This results in an estimated stocks-to-use ratio of only 27 percent. In 1974/75, when ending inventories amounted to only 92 million bushels the stocks-to-use ratio was record low at only 25 percent. March 1, 1991, barley stocks were reported at 210 million bushels, compared to 306 million bushels on December 1, 1990. The preliminary marketing-year weighted-average price for all barley for the 1990/91 crop year is $2.13 per bushel, down from $2.42 in 1989/90. Through April 1991, feed barley prices in Duluth averaged $1.96 per bushel, well below the average of a year earlier. Following the 1988 crop disaster in the Northern Plains the spread between malting barley and feed barley peaked during the summer at over $2.00 per bushel. Since that time the gap has narrowed as the price for malting barley has fallen more than the feed barley price. This is due primarily to increased supplies of malting barley.

COPYRIGHT 1991 For more information, contact US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Phone: 1-800-999-6779 (8:30-5:00 ET)

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