Appendix B Detailed Statistic Explanatory Note

Appendix B Detailed Statistic Explanatory Note

Detailed Statistic Explanatory Notes

Explanatory Notes

The following Explanatory Notes are provided to assist in understanding and interpreting the data presented in the Detailed Statistics section of this publication.

* Note 1. Petroleum Supply Reporting System

* Note 2. Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting

System

* Note 3. Technical Notes for Detailed Statistics

Tables

* Note 4. Domestic Crude Oil Production

* Note 5. Export Data

* Note 6. Quality Control and Data Revision

* Note 7. Frames Maintenance

* Note 8. Practical Limitations of Data Collection

Efforts

* Note 9. 1994 Changes in the Petroleum Supply

Monthly

Note 1. Petroleum Supply Reporting System

The Petroleum Supply Reporting System (PSRS) represents a family of data collection survey forms, data processing systems, and publication systems that have been consolidated to achieve comparability and consistency throughout. The survey forms that comprise the PSRS are listed below:

Form

Number Name

EIA-800 “Weekly Refinery Report”

EIA-801 “Weekly Bulk Terminal Report”

EIA-802 “Weekly Product Pipeline Report”

EIA-803 “Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report”

EIA-804 “Weekly Imports Report”

EIA-807 “Propane Telephone Survey”

EIA-810 “Monthly Refinery Report”

EIA-811 “Monthly Bulk Terminal Report”

EIA-812 “Monthly Product Pipeline Report”

EIA-813 “Monthly Crude Oil Report”

EIA-814 “Monthly Imports Report”

EIA-816 “Monthly Natural Gas Liquids Report”

EIA-817 “Monthly Tanker and Barge Movement

Report”

EIA-819M “Monthly Oxygenate Telephone Report”

EIA-820 “Biennial Refinery Report”

Forms EIA-800 through 804 comprise the Weekly Petroleum Supply Reporting System (WPSRS). A sample of all petroleum companies report weekly data to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on crude oil and petroleum product stocks, refinery inputs and production, and crude oil and petroleum product imports. The sample of companies that report weekly is selected from the universe of companies that report on the comparable monthly surveys. Data collected from the WPSRS are used to develop estimates of the most current monthly quantities in the Summary Statistics section of the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) and which appear in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR).

The Form EIA-807, “Propane Telephone Survey” is used to collect data on production, stocks, and imports of propane. These data are used to monitor the supply of propane and to report to the Congress and others on supplies when requested. Data are collected from a sample of respondents reporting on the Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting System (MPSRS) surveys. Data are collected on a weekly basis during the heating season (October through March) and published electronically in the Winter Fuels Report. During the non-heating season (April through September) data are collected on end-of-month stocks only. These data are published in the WPSR.

Forms EIA-810 through 814, 816, and 817 comprise the MPSRS. These surveys are used to collect detailed refinery/blender and natural gas plant operations data; refinery/blender, bulk terminal, natural gas plant, and pipeline stocks data; crude oil and petroleum product imports data; and data on movements of petroleum products and crude oil between Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts. A description of the MPSRS forms follows in Explanatory Note 2.

Data from these surveys are published in preliminary form in the PSM. They are published in final form in the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA), Volumes 1 and 2.

Summary information on the revision error between preliminary and final data is published once a year in the PSM feature article entitled, “Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data.” The last article was published in the September 1996 issue and evaluated the accuracy of the data for the current year compared with the previous year.

The Form EIA-819M, “Monthly Oxygenate Telephone Report,” is used to collect preliminary data on production and stocks of oxygenates by PAD District. These data are used to monitor the supply of oxygenates. Data are collected from a sample of respondents reporting on the MPSRS surveys and from the universe of oxygenate producers. Data are published in Appendix D of this publication and in the WPSR.

The Form EIA-820, “Annual Refinery Report,” is used to collect data on refinery fuel use and consumption of steam and electricity, refinery receipts of crude oil by method of transportation, operable capacity for atmospheric crude oil distillation units and downstream units, as well as production capacity and storage capacity for petroleum products. This survey is the primary source of data in the Refinery Capacity section of the PSA Volume 1.

Note 2. Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting System

The Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting System (MPSRS) was implemented in January 1983 as the result of an extensive effort by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to integrate the collection and processing of petroleum supply data that had been collected on other survey forms for many years. The collection of monthly petroleum supply statistics began as early as 1918 when the U.S. Bureau of Mines began collecting data on refinery operations, crude oil stocks and movements. The collection systems were further expanded in 1925 to include natural gas plant liquids production and storage, imports of crude oil and petroleum products and storage and movement of petroleum products in 1959, and tanker and barge movements of crude oil and petroleum products in 1964. Since their inception, each survey has undergone numerous changes, but the MPSRS was the first effort to make them all consistent and comparable. The forms that comprise the MPSRS are:

Form

Number Name

EIA-810 “Monthly Refinery Report”

EIA-811 “Monthly Bulk Terminal Report”

EIA-812 “Monthly Product Pipeline Report”

EIA-813 “Monthly Crude Oil Report”

EIA-814 “Monthly Imports Report”

EIA-816 “Monthly Natural Gas Liquids Report”

EIA-817 “Monthly Tanker and Barge Movement

Report”

EIA-819M “Monthly Oxygenate Telephone Report”

Respondent Frame

Form EIA-810, “Monthly Refinery Report” – Operators of all operating and idle petroleum refineries and blending plants located in the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam and other U.S. possessions. Approximately 260 respondents report on the Form EIA-810.

Form EIA-811, “Monthly Bulk Terminal Report” – Every bulk terminal operating company located in the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and other U.S. possessions. A bulk terminal is primarily used for storage and/or marketing of petroleum products and has a total bulk storage capacity of 50,000 barrels or more, and/or receives petroleum products by tanker, barge, or pipeline. Bulk terminal facilities associated with a product pipeline are included. In addition, the Form EIA-811 must be completed by merchant oxygenate plants that produce oxygenates. Approximately 320 respondents report on the Form EIA-811.

Form EIA-812, “Monthly Product Pipeline Report” – All product pipeline companies that carry petroleum products (including interstate, intrastate, and intracompany pipelines) in the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Approximately 80 respondents report on the Form EIA-812.

Form EIA-813, “Monthly Crude Oil Report” – All companies which carry or store 1,000 barrels or more of crude oil. Included in this survey are gathering and trunk pipeline companies (including interstate, intrastate, and intracompany pipelines), crude oil producers, terminal operators, storers of crude oil (except refineries), and companies transporting Alaskan crude oil by water in the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Approximately 175 respondents report on the Form EIA-813.

Form EIA-814, “Monthly Imports Report” – All companies, including subsidiary or affiliated companies, that import crude oil or petroleum products (1) into the 50 States and the District of Columbia, (2) into Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and other U.S. possessions (Guam, Midway Islands, Wake Island, American Samoa, and Northern Mariana Islands), and (3) from Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and other U.S. possessions into the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Imports into Foreign Trade Zones located in the 50 States and the District of Columbia are considered imports into the 50 States and the District of Columbia and must be reported. A report is required only if there has been an import during the month unless the importer has been selected as part of a sample to report every month regardless of activity. Approximately 220 respondents report on the Form EIA-814.

Form EIA-816, “Monthly Natural Gas Liquids Report” – Operators of all facilities that extract liquid hydrocarbons from a natural gas stream (natural gas processing plant) and/or separate a liquid hydrocarbon stream into its component products (fractionator). Approximately 585 respondents report on the Form EIA-816.

Form EIA-817, “Monthly Tanker and Barge Movement Report” – All companies that have custody of crude oil or petroleum products transported by tanker or barge between Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts or between the Panama Canal and the United States. For purposes of this report, custody is defined as physical possession of crude oil or petroleum products on a company-owned tanker or barge. Also, companies which lease vessels or contract for the movement of crude oil or petroleum products on a tanker or barge between PAD Districts or between the Panama Canal and the United States are considered to have custody. Approximately 40 respondents report on the Form EIA-817.

Form EIA-819M, “Monthly Oxygenate Telephone Report” – The sample of companies that report on the EIA-819M are selected from the universe of companies that report on the MPSRS surveys and from the universe of oxygenate producers. The universe consists of (1) operators of facilities that produce (manufacture or distill) oxygenates (including MTBE plants, petrochemical plants, and refineries that produce oxygenates as part of their operations); (2) operators of petroleum refineries; and (3) operators of bulk terminals, bulk stations, blending plants, and other nonrefinery facilities that store and/or blend oxygenate. Approximately 85 respondents report on the Form EIA-819M.

Sampling

The sampling procedure used for the survey Form EIA-819M is the cut-off method and is performed using software developed by EIA’s Office of Statistical Standards. In the cut-off method, companies are ranked from largest to smallest on the basis of quantities reported (oxygenate production and oxygenate stocks.) Companies are chosen for the sample beginning with the largest and adding companies until the total sample covers approximately 90 percent of the total for each oxygenate item and supply type by geographic region (PAD Districts I through V) for which data may be published.

Description of Survey Forms

The Form EIA-810, “Monthly Refinery Report,” is used to collect data on refinery input and capacity, sulfur content and API gravity of crude oil, and data on supply (beginning stocks, receipts, and production) and disposition (inputs, shipments, fuel use and losses, and ending stocks) of crude oil and refined products.

The Form EIA-811, “Monthly Bulk Terminal Report,” is used to collect data on end-of-month stock levels of finished petroleum products by State in the custody of the bulk terminal company or merchant oxygenate plant regardless of ownership. Leased tankage at other facilities is excluded. All domestic and foreign stocks held at bulk terminals and in-transit thereto, except those in-transit by pipeline are included. Petroleum products in-transit by pipeline are reported by pipeline operators on Form EIA-812, “Monthly Product Pipeline Report.”

The Form EIA-S12, “Monthly Product Pipeline Report,” is used to collect data on end-of-month stock levels and movements of petroleum products transported by pipeline. Intermediate movements for pipeline systems operating in more than two PAD Districts are included.

The Form EIA-813, “Monthly Crude Oil Report,” is used to collect data on end-of-month stocks of crude oil held at pipeline and tank farms (associated with the pipelines) and terminals operated by the reporting company. Also, crude oil consumed by pipelines and on leases as pump fuel, boiler fuel, etc., is reported. Data are reported on a PAD District basis.

Total Alaskan crude oil stocks in-transit by water (including stocks held at transshipment terminals between Alaska and the continental United States) to the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands are also reported by the transporting company having custody of the stocks.

Inter-PAD District movements of crude oil by pipeline are collected by the shipping and receiving PAD District. Intermediate movements for pipeline systems operating in more than two PAD Districts are not included.

The Form EIA-814, “Monthly Imports Report,” is used to collect data on imports of crude oil and petroleum products (1) into the 50 States and the District of Columbia, (2) into Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and other U.S. possessions (Guam, Midway Islands, Wake Island, American Samoa, and Northern Mariana Islands), and (3) from Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and other U.S. possessions into the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Imports into Foreign Trade Zones located in the 50 States and the District of Columbia are considered imports into the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

The type of commodity, port of entry, country of origin, quantity (thousand barrels), sulfur percent by weight, API gravity, and name and location of the processing or storage facility are reported. Sulfur percent by weight is requested for crude oil, crude oil burned as fuel, and residual fuel oil only. API gravity is requested for crude oil only. The name and location of the processing or storage facility is requested for crude oil, unfinished oils, other hydrocarbons/hydrogen/oxygenates and blending components only.

The Form EIA-816, “Monthly Natural Gas Liquids Report,” is used to collect data on the operations of natural gas processing plants and fractionators. Beginning and end-of-month stocks, receipts, inputs, production, shipments, and plant fuel use and losses during the month are collected from operators of natural gas processing plants. End-of-month stocks are collected from fractionators.

The Form EIA-817, “Monthly Tanker and Barge Movement Report,” is used to collect data on the movements of crude oil and petroleum products between PAD Districts. Data are reported by shipping and receiving PAD District and sub-PAD District. Shipments to and from the Panama Canal are also included if the shipment was delivered to the Canal.

The Form EIA-819M, “Monthly Oxygenate Telephone Report,” is used to collect data on production and stocks of oxygenates. Data on end-of-month stocks are reported on a custody basis regardless of ownership. Data are reported on a PAD District basis.

Collection Methods

Except for the EIA-819M, survey forms for the MPSRS can be submitted by mail, facsimile, or electronic transmission. Completed forms are required to be postmarked by the 20th calendar day following the end of the report month. Data collection for the 819M begins on the seventh working day of each month. Data are solicited by telephone or transmitted to the EIA by facsimile. Receipt of the reports are monitored using an automated respondent mailing list. Telephone follow-up calls are made to nonrespondents prior to the publication deadline.

Response Rate

The response rate is generally 98 to 100 percent. Chronic nonrespondents and late filing respondents are contacted in writing and reminded of their requirement to report. Companies that file late or fail to file are subject to criminal fines, civil penalties, and other sanctions as provided by Section 13(i) of the Federal Energy Administration (FEA) Act.

Data Imputation

Imputation is performed for companies that fail to file Forms EIA-810 through 813, 816, and 819M. For such companies, previous monthly values are used for current values.

On the EIA-819M, data are aggregated for each geographic region. Estimation factors, which are derived from the previous year’s data, are then applied to each cell to generate published estimates.

Data for nonrespondents on the Forms EIA-814 and 817 are not imputed because these data series, by respondent, are highly variable.

Confidentiality

The Office of Legal Counsel of the Department of Justice concluded on March 20, 1991, that the Federal Energy Administration Act requires the EIA to provide company-specific data to the Department of Justice, or to any Federal agency when requested for official use, which may include enforcement of Federal law. The information contained on this form may also be made available, upon request, to another component of the Department of Energy (DOE), to any Committee of Congress, the General Accounting Office, or other Congressional agencies authorized by law to receive such information. A court of competent jurisdiction may obtain this information in response to an order.

The information contained on Forms EIA-810 through 813, 816, 817, and 819M are kept confidential and not disclosed to the public to the extent that they satisfy the criteria for exemption under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), 5 U.S.C. 552, the Department of Energy (DOE) regulations, 10 C.F.R. 1004.11, implementing the FOIA, and the Trade Secrets Act, 18 U.S.C. 1905. The information contained on Form EIA-814 are not considered confidential and historically has not been treated as such.

Upon receipt of a request for this information under the FOIA, the DOE shall make a final determination whether the information is exempt from disclosure in accordance with the procedures and criteria provided in the regulations. To assist us in this determination, respondents should demonstrate to the DOE that, for example, their information contains trade secrets or commercial or financial information whose release would be likely to cause substantial harm to their company’s competitive position. A letter accompanying the submission that explains (on an element-by-element basis) the reasons why the information would be likely to cause the respondent substantial competitive harm if released to the public would aid in this determination. A new justification does not need to be provided each time information is submitted on the form, if the company has previously submitted a justification for that information and the justification has not changed. Company specific data are also provided to other DOE offices for the purpose of examining operations in the context of emergency response planning and actual emergencies.

The data collected on Forms EIA-810 through 814, 816, and 817 appear in EIA publications such as Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM), Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA), and the Annual Energy Review.

Data on the breakdown between liquefied refinery gases and olefins, and lubricants is suppressed on PSM Table 29, “Refinery Net Production of Finished Petroleum Products by PAD and Refining Districts” and the corresponding PSA table to avoid disclosure of company identifiable data.

Statistics representing data aggregated from less than three companies or aggregated data representing 60 percent or more of a single company’s data are suppressed on the PSM and corresponding PSA tables listed below. In addition, complementary suppression is performed to avoid any residual disclosure.

* Table 28, “Refinery Input of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products by PAD and Refining Districts,” (inputs of oxygenates)

* Table 30, “Refinery Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products by PAD and Refining Districts,” (stocks of oxygenates)

* Table 51, “Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products by PAD District,” (stocks of oxygenates)

* Table 52, “Refinery, Bulk Terminal, and Natural Gas Plant Stocks of Selected Petroleum Products,” (all products)

* Table D2, “Monthly Fuel Ethanol Production and Stocks by PAD Districts,” and

* Table D3, “Monthly MTBE Production and Stocks by PAD Districts.”

With the exception of the tables listed above, the tables in the PSM (and corresponding PSA tables) are not subject to statistical nondisclosure procedures. Thus, there may be some table cells which are based on data from only one or two respondents, or which are dominated by data from one or two large respondents. In these cases, it may be possible for a knowledgeable user of the data to make inferences about the data reported by a specific respondent.

Note 3. Technical Notes for Detailed Statistics Tables

The detailed statistics tables in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) provide complete supply and demand information for the current year. The tables are organized to locate National and Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District summary data at the front followed by tables on crude oil and petroleum product production, import/export data, stocks information, and lastly, data on crude oil and petroleum product movements. To assist in the interpretation of these tables, the following technical notes are provided. Column and row headings are defined in the Glossary.

Supply

Field Production – Field production is the sum of crude oil production, natural gas plant liquids production, other liquids production, and finished petroleum products production.

Crude oil production is an estimate based on data received from State conservation agencies and the Mineral Management Service of the U.S. Department of the Interior. Refer to Explanatory Note 4 for further details.

Field production of natural gas plant liquids is reported on Form EIA-816 and published on a net basis (i.e., production minus inputs) in this column.

Other liquids field production is calculated by forcing the product supplied to be zero; thereby backing into field production.

Field production of finished petroleum products is calculated by (1) adding the amount of fuel ethanol that has been blended into finished motor gasoline, and (2) plus (+) or minus (-) the field production of motor gasoline blending components. Refer to Explanatory Note 8 for a further discussion of this calculation.

Negative field production of motor gasoline blending components represents an understatement for finished motor gasoline.

Negative field production of other finished motor gasoline represents an overstatement of other finished motor gasoline and an understatement of oxygenated motor gasoline.

Refinery Production – Published production of these products equal refinery production minus refinery input. Refinery production of other hydrocarbons, hydrogen and oxygenates, unfinished oils, and motor and aviation gasoline blending components appear on a net basis under refinery input. Negative refinery production will occur when the amount of a product produced during the month is less than the amount of that same product that is reprocessed (input) or reclassified to become another product during the same month.

Unaccounted for Crude Oil – This column is a balancing item for crude oil. This data element represents the difference between crude oil supply and disposition. Crude oil supply is the sum of field production and imports. Crude oil disposition is the sum of stock change, losses, refinery inputs, exports, and products supplied. A positive result indicates that refiners and exporters reported use of more crude oil than was reported to have been available to them. (This occurs, for example, when imports are undercounted due to late reporting or other problems). A negative result indicates that more crude oil was reported to have been supplied to refiners and exporters than they reported to have used.

Disposition

Stock Change – This column is calculated as the difference between the Ending Stocks column of this table and the Ending Stocks column of this table in the prior month’s publication. A negative number indicates a decrease in stocks and a positive number indicates an increase in stocks.

Crude Losses – The volume of crude oil reported by petroleum refineries as being lost in their operations. These losses are due to spills, contamination, fires, etc., as opposed to refining processing losses or gains.

Refinery Inputs – Refinery inputs of crude oil and intermediate materials (unfinished oils, gasoline blending components, other hydrocarbons and oxygenates, liquefied petroleum gases, and pentanes plus) that are processed at refineries to produce finished petroleum products.

Crude oil inputs represents total crude oil (domestic and foreign) input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units and other refinery processing units (i.e., catalytic cracking units, cokers).

Inputs of natural gas liquids are natural gas liquids received from natural gas plants for blending and processing. Published inputs of natural gas liquids are reported on a gross basis.

Inputs of unfinished oils, motor and aviation gasoline blending components, and other hydrocarbons and oxygenates are published on a net basis (i.e., refinery input minus refinery production).

Inputs of finished petroleum products are published on a net basis (i.e., refinery production minus refinery inputs) and displayed under the refinery production column.

Exports – Exports include crude oil shipments from the 50 States to Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

Products Supplied – Products supplied is equal to field production, plus refinery production, plus imports, plus unaccounted for crude oil, (plus net receipts on a PAD District basis), minus stock change, minus crude losses, minus refinery inputs, minus exports.

Products supplied indicates those quantities of petroleum products supplied for domestic consumption. Occasionally, the result for a product is negative because total disposition of the product exceeds total supply. Negative product supplied may occur for a number of reasons: (1) product reclassification has not been reported; (2) data were misreported or reported late; (3) in the case of calculations on a PAD District basis, the figure for net receipts was inaccurate because the coverage of interdistrict movements was incomplete; and (4) products such as gasoline blending components and unfinished oils have entered the primary supply channels with their production not having been reported, e.g., streams returned to refineries from petrochemical plants.

Product supplied for crude oil is the sum of crude oil burned on leases and by pipelines as fuel. Prior to January 1983, crude oil burned on leases and by pipelines as fuel were reported as either distillate or residual fuel oil and were included in product supplied for these products.

Yields

The refinery yield of finished motor gasoline is calculated by subtracting the inputs of pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gases, other hydrocarbons/oxygenates and motor gasoline blending components from the production of finished motor gasoline before dividing by the sum of crude oil input and unfinished oils input (net).

The refinery yield of finished aviation gasoline is calculated by subtracting the inputs of aviation gasoline blending components from the production of finished aviation gasoline before dividing by the sum of crude oil input and unfinished oils input (net).

Refinery yields for all products (except finished motor gasoline and finished aviation gasoline) are calculated by dividing the production for each product by the sum of crude oil input and unfinished oils input (net) reported in the U.S. total.

Stocks

Primary stocks of petroleum products do not include either secondary stocks held by dealers and jobbers or tertiary stocks held by consumers.

Movements

Movements of crude oil by pipeline between PAD Districts include trunk pipeline companies (interstate, intrastate, and intracompany pipelines). Intermediate movements for crude oil pipeline systems operating in more than two PAD Districts are not included.

Movements of petroleum products by pipeline between PAD Districts include trunk pipeline companies (interstate, intrastate and intracompany pipelines). Intermediate movements for product pipeline systems operating in more than two PAD Districts are included. For example, a shipment originating in PAD District 3, passing through PAD District 2 to PAD District 1, is reported as a movement from PAD District 3 to PAD District 2 and also from PAD District 2 to PAD District 1.

Waterborne movements of crude oil and petroleum products between PAD Districts include all shipments of crude oil or petroleum products for which the transporter has custody at the time of shipment. Custody is defined as physical possession of crude oil or petroleum products on a company-owned tanker and barge.

Note 4. Domestic Crude Oil Production

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects monthly crude oil production data on an ongoing basis. Data on crude oil production for States are reported to the EIA by State government agencies. Data on crude oil production for Federal offshore areas are reported to the EIA by the Minerals Management Service of the U.S. Department of the Interior and the California Department of Conservation.

Currently, all except four crude oil producing States (Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) report production on a monthly basis. These four States report crude oil production on an annual basis. Estimates of monthly crude oil production for these four States are made by the EIA using data reported on Form EIA-182, “Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Report.” After the end of each calendar year, the monthly crude oil production estimates are updated using annual reports from various State agencies, the Minerals Management Service, and the California Department of Conservation. The final estimate is published in the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA).

Table 26 of this publication provides estimates of crude oil production in the latest month for which most State production data are available. There is a time lag of approximately 4 months between the end of the production month and the time when most monthly State crude oil production data become available.

In order to present more timely crude oil production estimates, the EIA prepares a weekly crude oil production estimate, which is used in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR). At the end of the production month, these weekly estimates are aggregated into an original estimate of monthly crude oil production. Approximately 45 days later, this original estimate is replaced by State-level interim estimates. The State-level interim estimates are based on: (a) data reported by the States (e.g., production data for Alaska are typically reported to the EIA before the interim estimate is made); (b) first purchase data reported on Form EIA-182, “Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Report;” (c) exponential or hyperbolic curve fitted projections based on recent State data; or (d) constant level projections based on the average production rate during a recent time period.

Table B1 is intended to provide further insight into the EIA’s estimates of monthly U.S. crude oil production. It shows: (a) how the aggregate of reported State data evolves over a period of 18 months; (b) the number of producing States that have not reported production for a given month within that period; and (c) various EIA estimates of monthly crude oil production within that period:

Table B1. U.S. Crude 0il(a) Production Estimates

and Reported States(b) Data by Month

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

Date of Data Month of Production

Availability 3-00 4-00 5-00 6-00 7-00 8-00

Reported State Data

5-14-00 1024 0

6-14-00 1285 1018 0

7-14-00 3734 1602 1284 0

8-14-00 4104 3868 1563 1245 0

9-14-00 4260 4150 2549 1512 1215 0

10-14-00 5751 4286 4025 3779 1568 954

11-14-00 5797 5701 5587 5442 2231 1316

12-14-00 5797 5701 5587 5443 3891 2353

1-14-01 5798 5704 5614 5561 3966 3863

2-14-01 5814 5726 5674 5645 4181 4165

3-14-01 5833 5754 5730 5736 5573 5562

4-14-01 5881 5846 5873 5733 5778 5755

5-14-01 5868 5814 5802 5751 5646 5676

6-14-01 5868 5775 5802 5773 5661 5698

7-14-01 5934 5824 5865 5834 5753 5806

8-14-01 5936 5869 5871 5839 5757 5808

9-14-01 5937 5870 5872 5839 5758 5809

Producing States Without

Reported Monthly Production

9-14-01 0 0 0 0 6 0

Month of Production

3-00 4-00 5-00 6-00 7-00 8-00

Production Estimates

Estimate

Original(c) 5869 5830 5766 5764 5773 5771

Interim(d) 5873 5850 5837 5824 5792 5813

Form EIA-182

Initial 5124 5085 4935 4956 5020 5056

Revised 5132 5080 5039 5046 4983 5106

Final(e) 5918 5854 5847 5823 5739 5789

Date of Data Month of Production

Availability 9-00 10-00 11-00 12-00 1-01 2-01

Reported State Data

5-14-00

6-14-00

7-14-00

8-14-00

9-14-00

10-14-00 0

11-14-00 1207 0

12-14-00 1311 1264 0

1-14-01 2336 1536 1290 0

2-14-01 3956 2436 1516 1397 0

3-14-01 5478 4915 2489 1543 987 0

4-14-01 5782 5906 5934 5863 5639 5918

5-14-01 5639 5615 5502 4853 2061 1072

6-14-01 5650 5643 5640 5530 5093 2026

7-14-01 5758 5763 5780 5724 5554 5280

8-14-01 5762 5775 5789 5733 5576 5508

9-14-01 5768 5781 5791 5740 5692 5650

Producing States Without

Reported Monthly Production

9-14-01 0 0 0 0 7 7

Month of Production

9-00 10-00 11-00 12-00 1-01 2-01

Production Estimates

Estimate

Original(c) 5792 5881 5889 5899 5933 5870

Interim(d) 5767 5820 5868 5839 5836 5840

Form EIA-182

Initial 4994 5089 5221 5123 5137 5154

Revised 5121 5086 5216 5175 5068 5188

Final(e) 5758 5809 5833 5855

Date of Data Month of Production

Availability 3-01 4-01 5-01 6-01 7-01 8-01

Reported State Data

5-14-00

6-14-00

7-14-00

8-14-00

9-14-00

10-14-00

11-14-00

12-14-00

1-14-01

2-14-01

3-14-01

4-14-01 0

5-14-01 1010 0

6-14-01 1151 997 0

7-14-01 2025 1116 973 0

8-14-01 3991 2179 1222 948 0

9-14-01 5446 5052 2087 1077 935 0

Producing States Without

Reported Monthly Production

9-14-01 10 13 20 25 29 32

Month of Production

3-01 4-01 5-01 6-01 7-01 8-01

Production Estimates

Estimate

Original(c) 5836 5864 5805 5743 5740 5776

Interim(d) 5878 5854 5859 5799 5806

Form EIA-182

Initial 5102 4727 5341 5100 5197

Revised 5182 5380 5307 5133

Final(e)

(a) Includes lease condensate.

(b) Includes Federal offshore areas, Gulf of Mexico (PADD III)

and Pacific (PADD V), as two separate reporting entities.

(c) Original estimates are weighted averages based on the weekly

estimates published in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

(d) Interim estimates were made 44 days after the end of the

production month.

(e) Published in the Petroleum Supply Annual 2000, DOE/EIA

0340(00)/2.

* The original estimate is a monthly aggregate of the weekly crude oil production estimates published in the WPSR. This original monthly estimate is used in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) Tables S1 and S2 until replaced by the interim estimate.

* The interim estimate is used in the PSM Tables 1 through 25, and in Tables S1 and S2 until replaced by the final estimate.

* The initial estimate based upon first purchase data collected on the Form EIA-182 is used as an estimation tool in generating the interim estimate. The initial volume represents the best estimate available 40 days after the end of the production month and includes imputation for nonresponse and possible reporting errors. The revised volume is the best estimate available about 70 days after the production month and includes imputation as needed. A final revision is published concurrent with publication of Form EIA-182 price data in the Petroleum Marketing Annual.

* The final estimate is published in the PSA.

Note 5. Export Data

Each month the Energy Information Administration (EIA) receives magnetic tapes of aggregated export statistics from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (EM-522 and EM-594).

Census export statistics used in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) reflect both government and nongovernment exports of domestic and foreign merchandise from the United States (the 50 States and the District of Columbia) to foreign countries and U.S. possessions, without regard to whether or not the exportation involves a commercial transaction. The following types of transactions are excluded from the statistics:

(1) Merchandise shipped in transit through the United States from one foreign country to another, when documented as such with U.S. Customs.

(2) Bunker fuels and other supplies and equipment for use on departing vessels, planes, or other carriers engaged in foreign trade.

Source of Export Information

The official U.S. export statistics are compiled by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Exporters are required to file export documents with U.S. Customs officials (Customs Form 7525).

Country and Area of Destination

The country of destination is defined as the country of ultimate destination or the country where the goods are to be consumed, further processed, or manufactured, as known to the shipper at the time of exportation. If the shipper does not know the country of ultimate destination, the shipment is credited to the last country to which the shipper knows that the merchandise will be shipped in the same form as it was when exported.

Note 6. Quality Control and Data Revision

Quality Control

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) monitors the supply and disposition of crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas liquids in the United States. Through a tracking system, the EIA provides insight into the activities of primary operators and distributors in the petroleum industry. The tracking system, known as the Petroleum Supply Reporting System (PSRS), consists of production, inputs, imports, inventories, movements, and other petroleum-related data collected on weekly, monthly, and annual surveys.

Survey forms are periodically reviewed for completeness, meaningfulness, and clarity. Modifications are made, when needed, to maintain efficient measure of the intended data items and to track product movement accurately throughout the industry. Through this process, the EIA can maintain consistency among forms, minimize respondent burden, and eliminate ambiguity.

Sampling and Nonsampling Errors

There are two types of errors usually associated with data produced from a survey: nonsampling errors and sampling errors. Because the estimates for the monthly surveys 810 through 813, 816, and 817 are based on a complete census of the frame, there is no sampling error in the data presented. The data, however, are subject to nonsampling errors. Nonsampling errors, sometimes referred to as biases, are those which can arise from a number of sources: (1) the inability to obtain data from all companies in the frame or sample (nonresponse and the method used to account for nonresponses, (2) definitional difficulties and/or improperly worded questions which lead to different interpretations. (3) mistakes in recording or coding the data obtained from respondents, and (4) other errors of collection, response, coverage, and estimation.

Response rates on the monthly surveys are very high. In general, response rates average above 95 percent for the weekly survey and above 98 percent for monthly surveys. Whenever survey responses are not received in time to be included in published statistics, the data are imputed. Although imputing for missing data may not eliminate the total error associated with nonresponse, it can serve to reduce the error. The data reported in the previous month are used as imputed values for missing data for all surveys except the Forms EIA-814, “Monthly Imports Report,” and EIA-817, “Monthly Tanker and Barge Movement Report.” There is no imputation procedure for these surveys because these data series, by respondent, are highly variable.

Response error is the major factor affecting the accuracy of PSRS data. Response, or reporting error, is the difference between the true value and the value reported on a survey form. Response error can occur for any number of reasons. For example, figures may be entered incorrectly when written on forms by the respondent, or errors may result from the misunderstanding of survey form instructions or definitions. Response error can also occur from the use of preliminary data when final data are not available. This can result in differences between published preliminary and final data. To help detect and minimize probable reporting errors, automated editing procedures are used to check current data for consistency with past data, as well as for internal consistency (e.g., totals equal to the sums of the parts), and to flag those data elements that fail edit criteria.

Errors can also be introduced during data processing. For example, while creating computer data files, key errors can occur in transcribing or coding the data; or information can be entered into the wrong cell. Using well designed edit criteria which examine orders of magnitude, cell position, and historical reporting patterns, many of these errors can be identified and corrected.

Monthly data are compared to weekly data on a regular basis. Discrepancies betweenly weekly and monthly data are documented and respondents are called when discrepancies are either large (usually over 300 thousand barrels) or consistent (e.g., weekly data are always lower than monthly data). In addition, a comparison of the data collected on the PSRS with other similar data series from sources outside of the Petroleum Division is performed each year. The results of this data comparison are published once a year in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) feature article, “Comparison of Independent Statistics on Petroleum Supply.”

Sampling errors are those errors that occur when survey estimates are based on a sample rather than being derived from a complete census of the frame. The 819M data, which are based on sample estimates, serve as leading indicators of the PSRS monthly data for oxygenates. To assess the accuracy of the 819M statistics, data are compared with the monthly aggregate data for the EIA-810, 811, and 812 surveys. Although monthly data are still subject to error, they have been thoroughly reviewed and edited, and are considered to be the most accurate data available.

Data Revision

Resubmissions are any changes to the originally submitted data that were either requested by the EIA or initiated by the respondent. Resubmissions are compared with the original submission and processed at the time of receipt. For Forms EIA-810 through 813, 816, and 817 the Resubmission Tracking System (RTS) is run after resubmissions have been processed for the month. The RTS enables the user to study major products and data series to see how company resubmissions impact published data on a month by month basis. During the processing year, a summary of the effect of these resubmissions to major series is provided in Appendix C.

For the EIA-819M data, a determination is made on whether to process the resubmissions based on the magnitude of the revision. Cell entries on publication tables are marked with an “R” for revised.

Late Response

Respondents who fail to respond within the prescribed time limit (25th day following the end of the report month) become nonrespondents for that particular report period and are contacted by phone to obtain the current month’s data. Respondents who are chronically late (i.e., 3 consecutive months) are notified by EIA either by letter or telephone.

Nonresponse

Follow-up action is taken when a company fails to respond adequately to data requests from the EIA. Preliminary attempts to gather delinquent reports are made by phone. Noncompliance form letters are sent to those companies that have not submitted reports and have not responded to data requests by phone.

Note 7. Frames Maintenance

The Petroleum Division (PD) maintains complete lists of respondents to its monthly surveys. Each survey has a list of companies and facilities required to submit petroleum activity data. This list is known as the survey frame. Frame maintenance procedures are used to monitor the status of petroleum companies and facilities currently contained in each survey frame as well as to identify new members to be added to the frame. As a result, all known petroleum supply organizations falling within the definition of “Who Must Submit” participate in the survey.

The activities for frames maintenance are conducted on a monthly and annual basis. Monthly frames maintenance procedures focus on examining several frequently published industry periodicals that report changes in status (births, deaths, sales, and acquisitions) of petroleum facilities producing, transporting, importing, and/or storing crude oil and petroleum products. These sources are augmented by articles in newspapers, letters from respondents indicating changes in status, and information received from survey systems operated by other offices. Survey managers review these sources regularly to monitor changes in company operations and to develop lists of potential respondents. These activities assure coverage of the reporting universe and maintain accurate facility information on addresses and ownership.

Annual frames maintenance focuses on re-evaluating the “must submit” companies filing the Form EIA-814 and reviewing the sample frame for the Form EIA-819M, “Monthly Oxygenate Telephone Report.”

To supplement monthly and annual frames maintenance activities and to provide more thorough coverage, the PD periodically conducts a comprehensive frames investigation. These investigations result in the reassessment and recompilation of the complete frame for each survey. The effort also includes the evaluation of the impact of potential frame changes on the historical time series data published from these respondents. The results of this frame study are usually implemented in January to provide a full year under the same frame.

Note 8. Practical Limitations of Data Collection Efforts

Crude Oil Lease Stock Adjustment

End-of-month crude oil stocks held on leases are reported on the EIA-813, “Monthly Crude Oil Report.” However, only those companies that store 1,000 barrels or more of crude oil are required to submit a report. Previous frames analysis has shown that crude oil stocks held on leases reported to the EIA are consistently lower than the lease stocks reported to individual states.

Up until 1983, monthly state government data on lease stocks were substituted for EIA data wherever possible in order to rectify the understatement of lease crude oil stocks. State data were available from three states Texas, New Mexico, and Montana. To calculate the “lease adjustment,” a comparison between EIA reported data and the state government data was made and the difference added to the EIA data for the respective states.

In 1983, the EIA modified the Form EIA-813 to eliminate state data on crude oil stocks and began collecting crude oil stock data by Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District. With this change, the “lease adjustment” could no longer be calculated on a state basis and was changed to a PAD District level.

Trans Alaskan Pipeline System Adjustment

Beginning with the January 1989 data, adjustments are made to refinery inputs and product supplied of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and refinery inputs of crude oil to account for refiner misreporting. Substantial volumes of NGLs are produced at natural gas processing plants in Alaska and injected into the crude oil moving in the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). Refiners receiving any crude oil commingled with NGLs are instructed to report the NGL portion of that stream separately from the crude oil portion. This has not been done for Alaskan crude oil because refiners are unable to identify these volumes for accounting purposes. As a result, the NGL production in Alaska has been credited directly toward product supplied and also toward product supplied from refinery production when the refiner processes the crude oil-NGL mixture. In addition, the reporting of the commingled stream as crude oil by the refiner has overstated crude oil inputs and resulted in an increase in unaccounted for crude oil equal to the volume of NGL in the crude oil.

To offset this reporting error, an adjustment is made to refinery input in all PAD Districts receiving Alaskan crude oil. The adjustment reduces the crude oil inputs and increases the NGL inputs by an equal amount. Each PAD District adjustment is a portion of the known Alaskan-NGL production that is proportional to the PAD District’s share of Alaskan crude oil received at all refineries in the United States. The greatest impact occurs in PAD District V for butane and pentanes plus.

The reporting problem which began in 1987 grew as injections on NGLs into the TAPS increased. Data for 1988 was revised in the Petroleum Supply Annual to account for the adjustment.

Finished Motor Gasoline Product Supplied Adjustment

Beginning with the reporting of January 1993 data, adjustments were made to the product supplied series for finished motor gasoline. It was recognized that motor gasoline statistics published by the EIA through 1992 were underreported because the reporting system was not collecting all fuel ethanol and motor gasoline blending components being blended downstream from the refinery. The EIA was able to quantify these volumes and make corrective adjustments for 1992 in 1993 (refer to Table B2).

Table B2. Finished Motor Gasoline Product

Supplied Adjustment, 1994 – Present

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

Item/Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May

1994

Fuel Ethanol Adj 86 73 76 71 69

Motor Gas Blending 33 -7 27 58 51

Product Supplied 6,980 7,275 7,395 7,564 7,644

1995

Fuel Ethanol Adj 66 66 79 74 58

Motor Gas Blending 8 37 56 86 131

Product Supplied 7,163 7,481 7,788 7,651 7,894

1996

Fuel Ethanol Adj 58 53 49 37 27

Motor Gas Blending 39 23 -16 14 5

Product Supplied 7,254 7,552 7,729 7,869 7,998

1997

Fuel Ethanol Adj 39 50 51 46 48

Motor Gas Blending -20 61 -27 87 73

Product Supplied 7,301 7,668 7,796 8,064 8,139

1998

Fuel Ethanol Adj 66 55 61 55 42

Motor Gas Blending 84 39 117 140 142

Product Supplied 7,618 7,711 8,004 8,312 8,279

1999

Fuel Ethanol Adj 57 52 52 53 50

Motor Gas Blending 81 -13 20 134 46

Product Supplied 7,701 8,031 8,128 8,506 8,420

2000

Fuel Ethanol Adj 62 44 62 62 76

Motor Gas Blending 231 166 171 122 187

Product Supplied 7,498 8,222 8,232 8,229 8,505

2001

Fuel Ethanol Adj 89 73 65 63 70

Motor Gas Blending 362 173 340 310 209

Product Supplied 8,064 8,203 8,479 8,546 8,718

Item/Year Jun Jul Aug Sep

1994

Fuel Ethanol Adj 63 65 73 59

Motor Gas Blending 82 98 98 81

Product Supplied 7,922 7,884 7,975 7,615

1995

Fuel Ethanol Adj 81 49 36 57

Motor Gas Blending 113 46 110 35

Product Supplied 8,220 7,888 8,187 7,786

1996

Fuel Ethanol Adj 14 9 20 23

Motor Gas Blending 66 2 -18 2

Product Supplied 8,089 8,135 8,216 7,641

1997

Fuel Ethanol Adj 38 59 37 47

Motor Gas Blending 113 89 95 115

Product Supplied 8,288 8,496 8,233 8,023

1998

Fuel Ethanol Adj 50 49 58 62

Motor Gas Blending 246 111 88 171

Product Supplied 8,520 8,680 8,568 8,310

1999

Fuel Ethanol Adj 59 43 54 55

Motor Gas Blending 214 192 128 102

Product Supplied 8,886 8,942 8,579 8,305

2000

Fuel Ethanol Adj 30 89 73 66

Motor Gas Blending 93 73 112 115

Product Supplied 8,663 8,600 8,762 8,416

2001

Fuel Ethanol Adj 69 63

Motor Gas Blending 196 253

Product Supplied 8,722 8,974

Item/Year Oct Nov Dec Avg

1994

Fuel Ethanol Adj 90 82 82 74

Motor Gas Blending -16 56 113 57

Product Supplied 7,548 7,464 7,924 7,601

1995

Fuel Ethanol Adj 72 91 58 65

Motor Gas Blending 89 28 29 64

Product Supplied 7,781 7,866 7,742 7,789

1996

Fuel Ethanol Adj 36 44 38 34

Motor Gas Blending 40 53 31 20

Product Supplied 8,038 7,875 7,775 7,849

1997

Fuel Ethanol Adj 69 50 61 50

Motor Gas Blending 107 165 80 78

Product Supplied 8,141 7,965 8,065 8,017

1998

Fuel Ethanol Adj 71 55 75 58

Motor Gas Blending 89 145 205 132

Product Supplied 8,378 8,167 8,451 8,253

1999

Fuel Ethanol Adj 64 66 72 56

Motor Gas Blending 214 156 165 120

Product Supplied 8,542 8,240 8,859 8,431

2000

Fuel Ethanol Adj 74 73 76 66

Motor Gas Blending 96 56 269 141

Product Supplied 8,364 8,297 8,573 8,364

2001

Fuel Ethanol Adj 70

Motor Gas Blending 265

Product Supplied 8,533

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to

independent rounding.

Source: * Fuel Ethanol Adjustment — 1994-1997, Energy Information

Administration (EIA), Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA), Volumes I and

II (Table 3, Motor gasoline field production minus motor gasoline

blending component field production); 1998 –, EIA, Petroleum Supply

Monthly (PSM), (Table 4). * Motor Gasoline Blending Component

Adjustment — 1994 – 1997, EIA, PSA, Volumes I and II (Table 3;

Motor gasoline blending component field adjustment) 1997 –, EIA,

PSM (Table 4).

Fuel Ethanol Adjustment

Prior to 1993, an estimated 60 to 70 thousand barrels per day of fuel ethanol were added to motor gasoline to produce gasohol but were not included in the EIA finished motor gasoline production data. In 1992, the EIA attempted to collect these data from downstream fuel ethanol motor gasoline blenders but found that this effort was impractical and the results were inaccurate.

Beginning in January 1993, an estimate for the missing fuel ethanol blended into motor gasoline was calculated. This estimate was calculated as production (from the EIA-819M, “Monthly Oxygenate Telephone Report”), plus imports (from the EIA-814, “Monthly Imports Report”), minus inputs at refineries (from the EIA-810, “Monthly Refinery Report”), plus or minus stock change (from the EIA-819M survey). This estimate for the amount of fuel ethanol blended into motor gasoline was added to Table 1 for Natural Gas Liquids Field Production (line 14) and in the Field Production column for finished motor gasoline in Tables 2 through 25 published in the PSM.

An estimate for the total amount of gasohol produced with the ethanol is given as 10 times the estimated fuel ethanol blended (this assumes a 10 percent ethanol blend). This amount is added to the column labeled field production of “oxygenated gasoline” and subtracted from the field production of “other” finished gasoline. The PAD District level detail was obtained by allocating the national level estimates according to the percent of gasohol sales from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Monthly Motor Fuel Reported by States, 1994.

Motor Gasoline Blending Component Adjustment

Prior to 1993, the EIA published a “product supplied” for motor gasoline blending components. Since these components are to be blended into finished motor gasoline, there is no actual demand for this intermediate product. The EIA corrected this series by including the quantity of “product supplied” for motor gasoline blending components with “other” finished motor gasoline. This change was accomplished in Tables 2 through 25 by adding product supplied for motor gasoline blending components to the column labeled field production of “other” motor gasoline, and subtracting it from the field production column for “motor gasoline blending components.”

Fuel Ethanol Stock Adjustment

Total end-of-month stocks of fuel ethanol are underreported in the PSRS because of the inability to collect data from downstream fuel ethanol motor gasoline blenders. Total stocks of fuel ethanol are assumed to be those reported by ethanol producers on the Form EIA-819M, “Monthly Oxygenate Telephone Report.” The difference between the stocks reported on the EIA-819M and the stocks reported in the PSRS (from refiners, bulk terminal and pipeline operators) is added to the stocks shown for bulk terminals. If the stocks for the PSRS are higher than those reported on the EIA-819M, no adjustment is made.

Note 9. 1994 Changes in the Petroleum Supply Monthly

Effective with January 1994 data, several enhancements were made to the tables in the Petroleum Supply Monthly to reflect changes in the petroleum industry and to provide more meaningful petroleum statistics. These changes primarily affect data reported for imports, exports, and product supplied.

* On December 31, 1992, Ecuador withdrew as a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As of January 1994, imports of petroleum from Ecuador now appear under imports from Non-OPEC sources. No revision was made to 1993 data. Countries have been realphabetized accordingly. This change is evident in Tables S3 and 35 through 44, 49 and 50.

* Exports data are now published for oxygenates and the sub-categories of finished motor gasoline (reformulated, oxygenated, and other) and distillate fuel oil (0.05% sulfur and under, and greater than 0.05% sulfur).

* Product supplied is now calculated for reformulated, oxygenated, and other finished motor gasoline as well as the sulfur categories of distillate fuel oil (0.05% sulfur and under, and greater than 0.05% sulfur).

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