New Technology Industry Indicator Developed by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter With Techtel Corp

New Technology Industry Indicator Developed by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter With Techtel Corp


“Demand Monitor: What’s Hot, What’s Not” Utilizes New Data Points

to Anticipate Shifts in Demand for Information Technology

A new indicator designed to detect the earliest signs of shifts in sales trends in certain information technology markets has been developed by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (NYSE:MWD) in partnership with Techtel Corp., a Bay Area survey and demand analysis company.

The proprietary Demand Monitor(SM) tracks brand and product awareness, along with other attitudes and variables likely to play a role in buyers’ future purchase decisions. MSDW is utilizing the new indicator in a series of three quarterly industry reports, entitled Demand Monitor: What’s Hot, What’s Not. The inaugural issues were launched this month. All three industry reports will be published by MSDW’s technology group following each calendar quarter end.

The reports, focusing on server hardware, enterprise software, and electronic imaging/printing, map out sales and demand trends as they emerge.

“These reports will be powerful tools to gauge what products and how much of each product large enterprises are purchasing. We track revenue and units sold by vendor. We also track changes in buyers’ awareness, consideration, purchase, and opinion,” said Chuck Phillips, managing director, MSDW Enterprise Software analyst. “We believe that these reports will help us see, for example, how and where macroeconomic and Y2K trends are hitting near-term technology spending.”

Based on Techtel’s Market Demand Model(TM) methodology, information from customers and potential customers is tracked according to MSDW’s design of relevant market segments and the different technologies and competitors within those markets.

“Demand and sales do not just happen,” said Mike Kelly, president, Techtel Corp. “Every sale is the culmination of a sales process. In essence, we station sentries at key points along the path of that process in order to highlight situations where historic revenue trends investors often rely upon may be on the verge of significant change.”

“Demand Monitor gives us unique quantitative data in place of anecdotal or impressionistic evidence of marketing gains or problems. With this tool we have the potential to detect changes in the marketplace as customers modify their opinions and buying behavior,” said Thomas Kraemer, MSDW’s server hardware analyst. Gillian Munson, PC hardware, PC Peripherals and Enterprise Storage, contributed to this report.

“Over time, a historical perspective that captures momentum and relative change will emerge — a valuable metric in technology where direction is essential,” noted Rebecca Runkle, MSDW photography/electronic imaging analyst.

MSDW and Techtel Broaden Model

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter analysts, and their associates Andrew Horwitz, Jayaveera Kodali, and Stacey Wexler, worked closely with Techtel for 18 months to refine and validate the Demand Monitor’s findings. The alliance between MSDW and Techtel broadened the Techtel Market Demand Model to incorporate revenue implications for management and investors, based on joint analysis and use of categories with extensive back data.

MSDW defined the markets, the segments, and the relevant products to be tracked in each, as well as provided the business analysis that accompanies each Demand Monitor.

The Techtel Market Demand Model analyzes steps in the buying process to identify probable technology, category and vendor switching earlier and with more confidence than other indicators. It has been used for more than a decade by analysts, corporations and academics at the University of California at Berkeley, University of Washington and others.

Techtel Corp., located in Emeryville, Calif., measures market opinion and demand for more than 45 categories of high-technology products for business and home. For nearly 15 years, Techtel has served companies, analysts and investors with data and analysis on demand and use of existing and emerging information technologies. The firm’s Internet address is

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter’s technology group is the financial industry’s leading technology research franchise. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (NYSE:MWD) is a global financial services firm and a market leader in securities, asset management, and credit and transaction services. The company has offices in New York, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and other principal financial centers around the world and has 429 securities branch offices throughout the United States.

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